It was eight weeks prior when the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his performances were an indicator or the reason for Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. When Rogers curled home his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and after failing to win any of their first six matches, find themselves a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to address. History, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side who have just won 10 in a row, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – however at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their star man to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened in London, and once more when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the upright from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition registered more shots and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the football into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the player he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a title charge while looking like a vital player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
